Decision MediaWorks

Ideal Habitat for Florida Dems: By The Numbers

If you are into political prognostication, it can be useful to look past simple voter registration statistics and into the demographic stats that drive partisan performance.

For this experiment, we wanted to see what single demographic measures most impacted the performance of legislative Democrats.  To find the answer we looked at every Democrat in a Florida legslative general election from 2008 to 2012 and evaluated over 100 different demographic variables from each legislative district.

The decision tree diagram below is the result of our analysis. It starts with all 235 general election races and filters them down based on which factor produced the most winning or losing Democrats – that is, which factor best split the winners and the losers.

For example, our first split is with black voting age population. We find that if the district has >15% black voting age population, Democrats won 90% of the time. If the district had <15%, Democrat won 23% of races. The tree then branches down to the next tier which you can see in the diagram below.

Click Image to Enlarge

A Little Bit More About Us

Welcome to the Decision MediaWorks blog! We are a boutique data science company that is fired up about helping clients gain insight from mounds of data.

The content on our blog focuses on Florida politics and policy. There’s not a lot of quality data analysis being done on state level issues and Decision MediaWorks fills that while showing off our data chops to potential clients.

We will cover other subjects for sure, but Sunshine State items will certainly be oversampled (data pun!).

We are very interested in your feedback as we roll out content. A lot of the things you will see in the blog are experimental, so we need your help knowing what works and what doesn’t. If you catch an error in our data, find an interactive viz awkward or just think the layout is ugly…let us know.

We want to be a nexus for curious people who say things like “I wonder what the data says about that?”

So, if you’re interested in drilling through the drivel that passes for internet analysis, we think you have a home right here at Decision MediaWorks.com.

Special Note: If you like what you see, please share us with your friends.

Where Republicans Shop for Margin

One of the big questions in Florida politics right now is how to grow the GOP coalition. The viz below shows a county by county map of where Republicans live and a bar graph showing what percentage of registered Republicans in each county are super voters.

A super voter is someone who has cast a ballot in all of the previous four elections (general and primary). Parties love super voters because they always vote and  little time or money needs to be spent motivating them to vote.  If one wants to create more super voters (and every political leader does), the best place to start is by studying existing super voters.

The viz  below is interactive, please explore and share any trends you see in the data. For any of you budding data wonks out there, the raw can be downloaded for your own exploration.

The Obama Battle Plan: Take The Cities, Ignore The Countryside

One of the things we like so much about data visualization is that it makes some things look pretty dang obvious.  For example, the Obama 2012 Florida campaign strategy.

The map viz below shows the difference between Obama’s performances from 2008 to 2012 in each house district.  The data is adjusted to account for the 2012 legislative redistricting process.

I’ll let the data speak for itself below but first a few items of interest.

- Obama performed worse in most districts with an average -.22% performance decline in house districts. This average decline is largely due to Obama sinking in strong Republican areas. If you only look at swing and Democrat seats, Obama averaged a .50% performance increase.

- Obama’s biggest jumps came in Miami in districts held by Republican house members. His other jumps came in districts heavy with independents and Hispanics. Tampa, Orlando and Miami broke heavily for Obama.

Have fun with the map below, shoot me a message with any questions.