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The Meaning of 2010?

We are in the process of creating the first Data Intelligence Briefing, which will take a data-driven look at which districts could switch hands in the next few cycles (The brief will be free, just sign up for our email list on the sidebar).

The chart below shows a line graph depicting GOP performance trends in GOP held seats over the last four cycles.

In general, there is a slight GOP downward trend with the exception of the 2010 cycle. Depending on who you ask, the 2010 cycle was either a sign that Florida is stabilizing politically or just a “bump” on the road to a progressive majority.

The blue line in the chart below shows the average for all GOP seats. The red line gives us a look at what the trend would be if 2010 were just a “fluke.” For the red line, we used Governor Scott’s performance in 2010 to “smooth” out the 2010 bump.

The 2010 question matters because it impacts how you plan for the 2014 cycle specifically and how you view Florida’s political future generally. Will Florida midterm elections remain GOP favorable? Can the Obama campaign machine drive turn out without Obama on the ticket?

If you believe the blue line, the GOP decline is very slight with the average downward slope of .05% per cycle. In essence, securing substantial GOP majorities in congress and the legislature.

If you believe the red line however, the GOP decline is substantial with a dozen Republican held seats showing average performance declines of 1% or more each cycle. In the red line scenario, there would be several new competitive seats.

Let us know your thoughts on the meaning of 2010 via Twitter, Facebook or the comments section below. Our upcoming Data Intelligence Briefing will dive deeper into these questions so make sure to sign up for our email list on the sidebar.

Note: We used the average GOP performance in statewide races to determine the performance for each year. Performance figures are for 2012 drawn seats had those boundaries existed in the 2006, 2008 and 2010 cycles.

Avg GOP Performance Per GOP Held Seat (2006-2012)

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